What Happened on MH370?

Connect the Dots

You knew your Ostrich Killer would have to throw in his own interpretation of the events on that vanished airliner, right?  Okay, here goes - using only what we think we know.  Of course, what we think we know comes from sources that have not been especially reliable to date, but it's all we have to work with.

First and probably the most critical of all the information, we have the airliner, which was supposed to be flying a course of North North West to Bejing from Kuala Lumpur, suddenly turn about a hundred and twenty degrees left to a course of West South West.  Passenger airliners aren't supposed to make such huge course changes without first letting the appropriate air traffic control authorities know about it, as well as the reasons for it.  But that communication has not been reported to us and probably therefore did not happen.  Very strange.

Next, an even more illuminating event took place: at least twelve minutes after this unauthorized and puzzling turn, the co-pilot is in routine radio contact with controllers.  He did not comment on the course change or on any on-board or weather-related issues, and signed off with a low-key "All right.  Good night."  Very benign, very humdrum.  Except the aircraft was flying in the wrong direction for reasons that were not explained.  Your Ostrich Killer does NOT believe that the co-pilot, the pilot, and everyone else aboard were unaware that they were on the wrong course.

Which brings us to the next critical event: dramatic altitude changes.  Some reports have the aircraft flying as high as 45,000 feet for a few moments.  One has to wonder why only for a moment to figure that one out: an aircraft in no apparent mechanical difficulty and under the control of skilled pilot(s) gets to 45,000 feet on purpose.  But why do so?  The grim answer:  to kill the passengers by de-pressurizing the aircraft cabin so they would not be any further trouble.  At that altitude the passengers and unnecessary aircrew would die in agony in seconds.

Then the aircraft dives to altitudes reported as low as 5,000 feet and disappears from radar.  But there's another benefit to flying that low - any live people on board can open the doors of the aircraft and work without requiring oxygen.  The bodies can be dumped over the side, lightening the aircraft by over 40,000 pounds.  Now that's a lot of work, but with the aircraft on autopilot any living crew could take their time as the aircraft flies to its pre-planned destination.

But why lighten the aircraft?  Here's the next bit of the information puzzle that I haven't seen addressed on any news reports - the range of a Boeing 777-200ER.  That ER stands for "Extended Range."  We've all seen those circles drawn on maps of the region, with a radius of about 2,500 nautical miles.  Why so little?  The aircraft is rated at a max range of 7,725 nautical miles.  Presumably weather and passenger / cargo loads will reduce that, but it seems safe to say that with a full fuel load - something else we haven't heard anything about on the news - that search radius could easily be expanded to at least 6,000 nautical miles.  That's an area of more than 113,000,000 square nautical miles.  An aircraft would take up about 300 feet of that.

So with a lightened aircraft and plenty of range, what's next in what seems to be a planned series of events?  Speculating, your Ostrich Killer suspects that the aircraft has landed somewhere, been hidden under cover, and is being repainted, adjustments made to its electronic communications systems, refueled and loaded with about 100 tons of high explosives.  Then it will be used as a smart bomb.  Israel has taken defensive measures against this very thing, so their thinking is similar to mine.  So getting an unauthorized 777 into Israeli air space will be hard to do, and the perps have to know this.  That's why your Ostrich Killer thinks the target is somewhere else more lightly defended.

What could be the target?  You can speculate as well as I, using the notorious Google Earth to help you.  Remember, it isn't enough that the target be lightly defended.  There can be no robust air traffic control or air defenses along the route to that target (big oceans provide such routes, as do the north and south poles,) and once close to the target air defense reaction times have to be long enough - or snarled in indecisive decision-making - to be ineffective.  So let your fingers do the route planning to your favorite target and see where you wind up.  Remember, you have as much as 6,000 nautical miles of range capability to play with as you maneuver this fully loaded airliner toward the bulls-eye, so you can duck and dodge with the aircraft to get to your target.  You might want to reduce that range a bit to account for drag-induced lower fuel efficiency at low altitude - necessary to stay off as many radars as possible. 

Depending on where the aircraft is undergoing its preparatory work right now, the target list could include such places as the Vatican (remember the aircrew is muslim,) Buckingham Palace, San Diego, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Washington DC, the new World Trade Center building in New York, an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf - well, the list goes on.  Use your imagination.

A thought on enabling infrastructure: a helpful or conveniently 'blind' government somewhere, with a 12,000 foot runway and a big empty hangar and a strong, sympathetic and zip-lipped workforce would be very helpful.  Can you think of any such governments?  

Yeah, so can I.

Someone is sure to ask "If it's a terrorist action, why hasn't some organization claimed credit?"  The answer may be that only phase 1 of that action is complete.  Phase 2 is re-prepping the aircraft for phase 3.  Phase 3 is the actual attack.  When that is done, someone will claim credit.  But not before.

But what about those photos from space, showing what appears to be debris?  Your Ostrich Killer is no expert, but after seeing those photos I will venture that what appears to be debris could as easily be sunlight glinting off the water - take a look at the whole unaltered photo and see if you don't see a lot of similar reflections in the area.  Or does it look like a catamaran?  Or maybe a couple of shipping containers?

One last very sobering thought:  what if some country has provided a nuke instead of 100 tons of high explosives?

Another cup of coffee now . . .